Comparison

Heat Pump vs Furnace: Which Heating System Fits?

A heat pump moves heat and cools too. A furnace burns fuel. Compare climate, energy source, cold-weather capacity and cost per unit of heat.

Mechanical, HVAC & Fluids · Last reviewed October 17, 2026

Short answer: a heat pump usually wins on efficiency and gives cooling too, and it fits well in mild and moderate climates. A furnace keeps its full output in very cold weather and can be cheaper to run where gas is cheap and electricity is dear. In cold climates a cold-climate heat pump, or a heat pump with backup heat, is a common answer.

	Heat pump (air-source)	Gas furnace
How it heats	Moves heat from outdoor air into the building using electricity	Burns gas and passes the heat to the air
Efficiency	Typical seasonal COP of about 2 to 4, which means 200 to 400% of the electricity as heat	AFUE of about 80 to 98%
Output in cold weather	Falls as it gets colder, and may need backup heat below the balance point	Output does not change with outdoor temperature
Cooling	Same equipment provides cooling	Needs a separate air conditioner
Supply air temperature	Warm, often 90 to 105 °F	Hot, often 120 °F or more
Energy source	Electricity only, which can come from the grid or from solar	Gas (or oil or propane), with a flue and a gas supply
Operating cost	Depends on the electricity rate and the COP	Depends on the gas price and the AFUE
Upfront cost	Often higher than a furnace alone, lower than a furnace plus an air conditioner	Lower, with an air conditioner added

Cost per unit of heat

To compare, work out what 100,000 Btu of delivered heat costs. A therm of gas is 100,000 Btu and a kWh is 3,412 Btu. With gas at $1.50 per therm and a 95% AFUE furnace:

Furnace: $1.50 ÷ 0.95 = $1.58 per 100,000 Btu

Heat pump COP	Electricity at $0.10/kWh	Electricity at $0.15/kWh	Electricity at $0.30/kWh
2.0	$1.47	$2.20	$4.40
3.0	$0.98	$1.47	$2.93
4.0	$0.73	$1.10	$2.20

At $0.15/kWh and a COP of 3, the heat pump ($1.47) is slightly cheaper than the 95% furnace ($1.58). The break-even COP at those prices is about 2.8. On a cold day the COP of an air-source heat pump falls, so the average over the heating season is what counts. The prices here are examples, and your own rates decide.

How to choose

Find the design low temperature and how many hours the site spends below the heat pump balance point.
Get your electricity and gas prices, and use the cost-per-heat comparison with a realistic seasonal COP.
Decide whether you need cooling, because that favors a heat pump.
Check the capacity of the heat pump at the design temperature, and plan the backup heat.
Look at incentives, the electrical service capacity and the gas availability.

Common mistakes

Comparing the heat pump rated COP at 47 °F with the furnace efficiency, instead of the seasonal average.
Sizing the heat pump for cooling only and forgetting the heating load in cold weather.
Leaving out backup heat in a cold climate, or setting its lockout too low.
Ignoring the electrical service upgrade that may be needed.

Related tools and labs

Calculators, labs and simulators are part of the All-Access Pass.

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Questions

Can a heat pump work below freezing?

Yes. Standard models lose capacity as it gets colder, and cold-climate models keep more of their capacity at low temperatures. Check the capacity table at your design temperature.

What is a dual-fuel system?

A heat pump paired with a gas furnace as backup. The controls switch between them at a set outdoor temperature or by cost.

Educational material. Examples use simplified, hypothetical inputs and are not a design, a construction document or professional engineering advice. Confirm requirements with the codes and standards adopted where the work is built and with a licensed engineer.

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